While surfing around InTrade to make sense out of when Tiger Woods will return to the PGA (odds are even that he'll return before April 30th of '10), I couldn't help but check on the Osama bin Laden "captured or neutralised" bet. Here's the "captured by March '10" chart:
A price of 5 is basically telling us there's a 5 percent chance of him being caught/neutralised. When the range of time extends to June and September, the odds of him being caught/neutralized rise, which is no surprise. The odds are not only higher when you go out in time, however, they are a lot higher! The September '10 price, for instance, is around 15 (compared to 5 for March).
Continue reading "Is Osama bin Laden Dead? (And, Does bin Laden Matter?) " »
